 |
|
Howard keeps firm grip on top spot
By Matthew Wuest - RedWingsCentral.com / November 7, 2007The Detroit Red Wings’ development model for goaltender Jimmy Howard has been simple: patience, patience and more patience.
In a year’s time, that patience could pay off. The 23-year-old Howard is No. 1 on Red Wings Central’s 2007-08 preliminary prospect ranking, his third straight placement atop the list since his ascension midway through last season.
Howard is following the three-plus-three model — three years in college plus three years in the American Hockey League — before the Red Wings hand him an NHL job. It’s a model that worked perfectly for the Buffalo Sabres and Ryan Miller.
The 6-foot-1, 208-pounder came to camp in the best shape of his career and it’s hoped he’ll have a breakthrough season with the Grand Rapids Griffins. The next step is to improve his consistency and do a better job shaking off bad goals.
Howard edged out second-ranked defenseman Jakub Kindl (Grand Rapids, AHL) for the third consecutive time. Forwards Justin Abdelkader (Michigan State, NCAA) and Cory Emmerton (Kingston, Ontario Hockey League) and defenseman Brendan Smith (Wisconsin, NCAA) round out the top five.
The highest rising prospect is winger Dick Axelsson (Djurgardens, Swedish Elite League), who soared six spots to No. 7. Forward Igor Grigorenko (Salavat Yulaev, Russian Elite League) plummeted a stunning 13 spots from third to 16th.
The following is a detailed look at the ranking, which is assembled with a fine balance between each prospect's upside and their chances of realizing it. Its basis is an ongoing survey of NHL scouts --- including those of the Detroit Red Wings --- as well as input from a variety of veteran observers.
1. G Jimmy Howard, Grand Rapids (AHL). It hasn't happened overnight --- Howard was taken in the same draft as Pittsburgh Penguins starter Marc-Andre Fleury --- but he finally appears poised to put it all together.
2. D Jakub Kindl, Grand Rapids (AHL). He's the highest Red Wings draft pick in 15 years, and the organization loves his size and skill. But he's still raw and likely needs at least two AHL seasons before he's ready for NHL duty.
3. F Justin Abdelkader, Michigan State (NCAA). He's developing a reputation as a big-game player and looks like a lock to anchor Detroit's third line for years to come. He's a big, physical puck-chaser who skates extremely well.
4. F Cory Emmerton, Kingston (OHL). Emmerton is a perfect fit for the Red Wings' puck-possession style, a fact that can't be overlooked. His outstanding hockey mind makes him dangerous offensively. He also takes care of his own zone.
5. D Brendan Smith, Wisconsin (NCAA). Fluid and mobile, Smith looks like a future power-play quarterback. If he develops as the Red Wings hope, he could come along at just the right time, with Nicklas Lidstrom aging.
6. F Jan Mursak, Saginaw (OHL). He's struggled this season after adding 15 pounds of muscle, but he's a speedy, dynamic offensive prospect who competes every shift and could play on a scoring line if everything goes well.
7. F Dick Axelsson, Djurgardens (SWE). On talent alone, he ranks at the top of this list. He has first-line upside, but he'll only realize that potential when he figures out how to use his skill on a shift-in, shift-out basis. It's coming.
8. D Jonathan Ericsson, Grand Rapids (AHL). Consistency and better decision-making could help him become a 20-minute-a-night NHL defenseman. The mammoth blueliner is mobile, skilled and physical.
9. D Kyle Quincey, Grand Rapids (AHL). Quincey has already shown he can play a steady No. 6 role effectively in the NHL. His upside beyond that may be limited, but he's the closest to Detroit of anyone on this list.
10. F Darren Helm, Grand Rapids (AHL). He's flown under the radar this year because of injuries, but Helm's still a terrific prospect. Speed, spunk and grit all add up to a third-line momentum-changer who can chip in on the scoresheet.
11. F Johan Ryno, Grand Rapids (AHL). Ryno is tall but skinny, talented but not overly fast. He's flashed his upside and could be a good one, but will need some time, as did another rangy forward, Tomas Kopecky.
12. F Joakim Andersson, Boras (SWE-2). He's just 18 and already holding his own against men at Sweden's second level. He's producing points and winning faceoffs, and could be another third-line ace down the road.
13. D Logan Pyett, Regina (WHL). There is plenty of room in the NHL for a defenseman with Pyett's smarts and offensive ability. Expect the Red Wings sign him at the end of the season to get him into the pros.
14. F Ryan Oulahen, Grand Rapids (AHL). You don't find hockey players much more complete than Oulahen. The offensive numbers are starting to follow, too. If he plays with an edge, he could be another Matt Ellis.
15. F Mattias Ritola, Grand Rapids (AHL). He was one of the last prospects cut from the Red Wings' main camp and boasts a pile of skill. But he's still an enigma who won't break through unless he becomes more consistent.
16. F Igor Grigorenko, Salavat Yulaev (RUS). He has NHL hands and smarts, but must whip himself into better shape in order to keep up with the pace. He says he's going to and the Red Wings haven't given up all hope. Yet.
17. G Daniel Larsson, Djurgardens (SWE). He's posting high-end numbers in the Swedish Elite League, but he's not guaranteed a contract just yet. It helps his cause that the Red Wings lack depth in goal beyond Jimmy Howard.
18. F Evan McGrath, Grand Rapids (AHL). McGrath took strides this year and had a good camp after a disappointing rookie season. He's still on the radar, but hasn't shown he can produce in the pros as he did in junior.
19. F Zack Torquato, Erie (OHL). He's been slow out of the gates this season, but he is well-rounded and has the talent to be an elite scorer in junior. If it weren't for below-average skating, Torquato would be ranked higher.
20. F Anton Axelsson, Timra (SWE). Axelsson has great bloodlines and is in fantastic physical condition. He's a great checker, but his lack of production is not going to help him when it comes time for contracts.
MORE: Complete prospects list »
Sponsored Links
The next wave
RWC's top 10 prospects (end-of-season)
| 01 | D | Jonathan Ericsson » | Grand Rapids (AHL) |
| 02 | F | Darren Helm » | Grand Rapids (AHL) |
| 03 | G | Jimmy Howard » | Grand Rapids (AHL) |
| 04 | D | Jakub Kindl » | Grand Rapids (AHL) |
| 05 | F | Justin Abdelkader » | Michigan St. (NCAA) |
| 06 | D | Brendan Smith » | Wisconsin (NCAA) |
| 07 | F | Jan Mursak » | Belleville (OHL) |
| 08 | F | Cory Emmerton » | Brampton (OHL) |
| 09 | F | Dick Axelsson » | Djurgardens (SWE) |
| 10 | D | Kyle Quincey » | Grand Rapids (AHL) |